HOW TO PICK THE WINNER
Picking the winner of the Grand National is often described as a lottery (partly because the first horse to win the National, back in 1839, was called Lottery), but there are a number of things that provide useful pointers…

AGE - 8 AND 9 YEAR-OLDS?
Old horses tend to struggle in the National, yet it takes experience to win. A 13-year-old has not won the race since 1923, a 12-year-old not since 2004, an 11-year-old not since 2014 and a 10-year-old not since 2011. In the last two decades the 8 to 11 year-old range has proved the most successful. But over the last 8 runnings, 8-year-olds have won 4 times and 9-year-olds three of the other four. The lack of a 10-year-old Grand National winner since 2011 really is hard to fathom. The 10-year-olds that stand out this time are Corach Rambler (obviously), Galvin and Shakem Uparry.

WEIGHT - IDEALLY, NO MORE THAN 11 STONE?
The National is a handicap, which means all of the horses are allocated different weights in February based on an expert's take on their form - the idea being that each horse should end up having an equal chance. However, the result is another matter entirely. Under the handicap, horses are allocated a weight between 9 stone (for the worst horses) and a shade under 12 stone (for the proven acts). But, come race day, no horse carries less than 10 stones. The Grand National is a long, arduous race and coping with a big weight usually proves too much, even when the conditions are ideal; which was what made the performance of Many Clouds in 2015 all the more remarkable. Just 8 out of the last 38 winners have carried 11st or more; and 26 (68%) were carrying between 10st 5lb and 11st. So that would appear to narrow things down to the likes of Kittys Light, Meetingofthewaters, Panda Boy and Vanillier.

BETTING - 25-1 OR UNDER?
For what is considered a game of chance, is the Grand National getting easier to predict? Maybe, given that two out of the last four Nationals have been won by the favourite, while 5 out of the last 6 winners have gone off at 14-1 or shorter. In recent memory, just one horse quoted bigger than 40-1 with a few days to go has triumphed - Mon Mome, in 2009, who won at 100-1. But, of course, eight years ago, Rule The World was 40-1 at this stage as was Red Marauder in 2001 (before eventually going off at 33s). Should you need any more convincing that the market is a good pointer, Papillon, in 2000, was 33-1 on the Friday and 10-1 when the tape went up. At this point, however, all one can do is second-guess how the market will develop.

WHAT’S IN A LETTER? AFTER ALL, THE RACE IS A LOTTERY!
The last Grand National winner with a "Z" in its name was Zoedone way back in, wait for it, 1883. For the second year running Z isn't represented, but the letter "K" hasn't been attached to a National winner since Mr Frisk came home in front in 1990. Those with names containing a K include Coko Beach, Delta Work, Kittys Light, Limerick Lace and Shakem Uparry.

WHO’S ON BOARD?
Some jockeys have fond memories of the Grand National (those in bold are still active, those greyed out have since retired):

...and here's who they will be riding:

TO CUT A LONG STORY SHORT!

As usual, I will be backing three to win plus a fourth (at a big price) each-way. Having picked out the first two in 2016, the winner in 2017 and the first two in 2021 implementing that very plan, the law of averages suggests you can instantly strike a line through the four I am about to list. But here they are anyway...

I AM MAXIMUS - Of all trainer Willie Mullins' entries for the big race, the French-bred 8-year-old is the star as well as a stand-out stayer. Just the other day, Mullins wrote in his column for sportinglife.com: "His preparation has been going fantastically." The winner of last year's Irish Grand National is 8-1 with Bet365 and Betfred.

KITTYS LIGHT - Pulled off a remarkable treble last season by winning the Eider Chase at Newcastle, the Scottish Grand National at Ayr and the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. This term, however, trainer Christian Williams has opted to protect Kitty's handicap by restricting him to sub-three-mile outings over hurdles. 14-1 with Coral, Ladbrokes and Skybet.

MR INCREDIBLE - Another representing trainer Willie Mullins. Mr Incredible ran a huge race to finish second in last season's Classic Chase at Warwick and was well positioned in last year's National when his saddle slipped on the second circuit, and jockey Brian Hayes was sent flying at the Canal Turn. Has endless stamina and loves bottomless ground. 14-1 with most firms.

GLENGOULY - Yet another from the Mullins' yard. Okay, so Willie Mullins has trained just one Grand National winner (Hedgehunter in 2005), but his big event record is legendary. Glengouly has been a good second in two handicap chases this season, plus any doubts over his stamina were dispelled given the ground for January's Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park. 66-1 with Bet365 and William Hill.

So those are my four. Whatever you decide to go for, I sincerely hope they bring you luck and, more importantly, get around Aintree safely.

Terence Westbrook - 8 April 2024