HOW TO PICK THE WINNER
There are no hard and fast rules to picking a Grand National winner, but there are a lot of things that provide useful pointers…

AGE: 9 AND 10-YEAR-OLDS
Young and old horses tend to struggle in the National, yet it takes experience to win. Six and seven year-olds and horses aged 13 or over are best avoided completely. Of the 8-12 year-old range, 9 and 10-year-olds have proved the most successful in recent memory; indeed, the last seven winners have either been 9 or 10 years of age. So, which ones are worth backing this time? Well, you can make a strong case for Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey, Giles Cross, Junior, Killyglen, Seabass, Synchronised and West End Rocker.

WEIGHT: NO MORE THAN 11 STONES
The Grand National is a handicap, which means that all of the horses are allocated different weights based on what an expert made of their form in mid-February – the idea being that each horse should end up having an equal chance. However, the result is often another matter entirely. Under the handicap, horses will be allocated a weight between 9 stone (for the worst horses) and a shade under 12 stone (for the proven acts). But, come race day, no horse carries less than 10 stones. The Grand National is a long and arduous race and coping with a big weight usually proves too much, even when the conditions are ideal. Just two out of the last 27 winners have carried over 11st; but 10 out of the last twelve were carrying between 10st 4lb and 11st. So that would appear to narrow things down to the likes of Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey, Killyglen, On His Own, Seabass, Sunnyhillboy and West End Rocker.

BETTING: 16-1 OR UNDER
For what is considered a lottery, is the Grand National getting easier to predict? If it was that easy, then why have I had money on just three winners in the last twelve years? In recent memory only one horse quoted at 40-1 or more with a few days to go has triumphed – and that was in 2009 when Mon Mome won at 100-1. Ten years ago Red Marauder was 40-1 at this stage, but went off at 33s. In 2000, Papillon was 33-1 on the Friday and started at 10-1. So, the market is a good pointer. At this stage, however, all one can hope to do is second guess what it is going to do between now and Saturday afternoon. 16 of the last 21 winners have started the race at 16-1 or less, so, below, I have only listed those horses that are currently 33-1 or shorter.

WHAT’S IN A LETTER? AFTER ALL, THE RACE IS A LOTTERY!
The last Grand National winner with a “Z” in its name was Zoedone way back in, wait for it, 1883. While that may not seem a complete surprise, temptingly there is just one horses on the card with a chance of creating a little bit of history – Midnight Haze. But another letter that has not been represented for while is “W”, which hasn’t been attached to a National winner since West Tip came home in front in 1986. Always Right, Always Waining, On His Own, West End Rocker and Weird Al appear to be in with a shout of altering that.

WHO’S ON BOARD?
Some jockeys with rides this Saturday have fond memories of the Grand National. Of those who have ridden a National winner in the last 10 years, Barry Geraghty is on Shakalakaboomboom, AP McCoy rides Synchronised, Jason Maguire saddles BallaBriggs once again, Timmy Murphy rides Weird Al, Robbie Power is likely to be onboard Killyglen and Ruby Walsh saddles On His Own. And, of those who have been on board top four finishers in recent years, Leighton Aspell will be on either In Compliance or Vic Venturi, Daryl Jacob rides Neptune Collonges, Paul Moloney saddles Cappa Bleu and Denis O'Regan is onboard Black Apalachi.

TO CUT A LONG STORY SHORT
Let’s have a look at where all this points us, assuming the current odds stay as they are:

Terence Westbrook - 11 April 2012