HOW TO PICK THE WINNER
Picking the winner of the Grand National is often described as a lottery
(partly because the first horse to win the National, back in 1839, was
called Lottery), but there are a number of things that provide useful
pointers…
AGE - 8 AND 9 YEAR-OLDS?
Young and old horses tend to struggle in the National, yet it takes
experience to win. A 13-year-old has not won the race since 1923, a
12-year-old not since 2004, an 11-year-old not since 2014 and a 10-year-old
not since 2011. As for 7-year-old winners, there has only been one since the
Second World War - last year's victor Noble Yeats! The 8 to 11 year-old
range has proved the most successful in recent memory. But over the last 7
runnings, 8-year-olds have won 4 times and 9-year-olds two of the other
three. The lack of a 10-year-old Grand National winner since 2011 really is
hard to fathom. The 10-year-olds that stand out this time are The
Big Dog and Delta Work.
WEIGHT - IDEALLY, NO MORE THAN 11 STONE?
The National is a handicap, which means all of the horses are allocated
different weights in February based on an expert's take on their form - the
idea being that each horse should end up having an equal chance. However,
the result is another matter entirely. Under the handicap, horses are
allocated a weight between 9 stone (for the worst horses) and a shade under
12 stone (for the proven acts). But, come race day, no horse carries less
than 10 stones. The Grand National is a long, arduous race and coping with a
big weight usually proves too much, even when the conditions are ideal;
which was what made the performance of Many Clouds in 2015 all the more
remarkable. Just 8 out of the last 37 winners have carried 11st or more; and
25 (68%) were carrying between 10st 5lb and 11st. So that would appear to
narrow things down to the likes of Ain't That A Shame,
Corach Rambler, Gaillard
Du Mesnil, Le Milos, Longhouse
Poet and Mr Incredible.
BETTING - 25-1 OR UNDER?
For what is considered a game of chance, is the Grand National getting
easier to predict? A little easier. In recent memory, just one horse quoted
bigger than 40-1 with a few days to go has triumphed - Mon Mome, in 2009,
who won at 100-1. But, of course, seven years ago, Rule The World was 40-1
at this stage as was Red Marauder in 2001 (before eventually going off at
33s). Should you need any more evidence that the market is a good pointer,
Papillon, in 2000, was 33-1 on the Friday and 10-1 when the tape went up. At
this point, however, all one can do is second-guess how the market will
develop.
WHAT’S IN A LETTER? AFTER ALL, THE RACE IS A
LOTTERY!
The last Grand National winner with a "Z" in its name was Zoedone
way back in, wait for it, 1883. Z isn't represented this year, but the
letter "K" hasn't been attached to a National winner since Mr
Frisk came home in front in 1990. Those with names containing a K include Back
On The Lash, The Big Breakaway, Coko
Beach, Delta Work and Evas
Oskar.
WHO’S ON BOARD?
Some jockeys have fond memories of the Grand
National (those in bold are still active, those
greyed out have since retired):
|
Winner |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
2022 |
Sam
Waley-Cohen |
Mark
Walsh |
Jack
Kennedy |
Nick
Scholfield |
2021 |
Rachael
Blackmore |
Aidan
Coleman |
Mark
Walsh |
Patrick
Mullins |
2019 |
Davy
Russell |
Paddy
Kennedy |
Ruby
Walsh |
James
Best |
2018 |
Davy
Russell |
Barry
Geraghty |
David
Bass |
Keith
Donoghue |
2017 |
Derek
Fox |
Jamie
Codd |
Davy
Russell |
Noel
Fehily |
2016 |
David
Mullins |
David
Bass |
Robert
Dunne |
Robbie
Power |
2015 |
Leighton
Aspell |
Paddy
Brennan |
Liam
Treadwell |
Paul
Moloney |
2014 |
Leighton
Aspell |
Richard
Johnson |
AP
McCoy |
Paul
Moloney |
2013 |
Ryan
Mania |
Paul
Moloney |
Nick
Scholfield |
Sam
Waley-Cohen |
2012 |
Daryl
Jacob |
Richie
McLernon |
Katie
Walsh |
Paul
Moloney |
2011 |
Jason
Maguire |
Sam
Waley-Cohen |
AP
McCoy |
Paul
Moloney |
2010 |
AP
McCoy |
Denis
O'Regan |
Paul
Moloney |
Barry
Geraghty |
2009 |
Liam
Treadwell |
Timmy
Murphy |
Ruby
Walsh |
Paul
Moloney |
2008 |
Timmy
Murphy |
Paul
Carberry |
David
Casey |
Barry
Geraghty |
2007 |
Robbie
Power |
Tom
O'Brien |
Barry
Geraghty |
Daryl
Jacob |
...and here's who they will be riding:
David
Bass |
unassigned |
James
Best |
unassigned |
Rachael
Blackmore |
Ain't That A
Shame |
Paddy
Brennan |
unassigned |
Jamie
Codd |
unassigned |
Aidan
Coleman |
The Big Dog |
Keith
Donoghue |
Delta Work |
Robert
Dunne |
unassigned |
Derek
Fox |
Corach Rambler |
Daryl
Jacob |
unassigned |
Patrick
Mullins |
unassigned |
Denis
O'Regan |
unassigned |
Davy
Russell |
Galvin |
Nick
Scholfield |
unassigned |
Mark
Walsh |
Any Second Now |
TO CUT A LONG STORY SHORT!
Corach
Rambler
|
7
|
9
|
10-5
|
Delta
Work
|
8
|
10
|
11-4
|
Noble
Yeats
|
8.5
|
8
|
11-11
|
Gaillard
Du Mesnil
|
12
|
7
|
11-0
|
Mr
Incredible
|
12
|
7
|
10-4
|
Aint
That A Shame
|
14
|
9
|
10-5
|
Le
Milos
|
14
|
8
|
10-11
|
Longhouse
Poet
|
14
|
9
|
11-0
|
Any
Second Now
|
16
|
11
|
11-12
|
Capodanno
|
16
|
7
|
11-5
|
The
Big Dog
|
16
|
10
|
11-5
|
Vanillier
|
18
|
8
|
10-6
|
Galvin
|
20
|
9
|
11-11
|
Our
Power
|
20
|
8
|
10-2
|
Lifetime
Ambition
|
25
|
8
|
11-3
|
Back
On The Lash
|
28
|
9
|
10-2
|
Coko
Beach
|
28
|
8
|
11-0
|
Roi
Mage
|
28
|
11
|
10-8
|
The
Big Breakaway
|
33
|
8
|
10-10
|
Velvet
Elvis
|
33
|
7
|
10-6
|
Carefully
Selected
|
40
|
11
|
11-1
|
Evas
Oskar
|
40
|
9
|
10-2
|
Gabbys
Cross
|
40
|
8
|
10-2
|
Minella
Trump
|
40
|
9
|
10-6
|
As usual, I will be backing three to win plus a fourth (at a big price)
each-way. Having picked out the first two in 2016, the winner in 2017 and
the first two last year (2021) by implementing that plan, the law of
averages suggests you can instantly strike a line through the four I am
about to list. But here they are anyway...
DELTA WORK - Third in last year's
National (albeit by 20 lengths), but carrying 5lbs less on this occasion,
and has beaten stable-mate Tiger Roll in his time. Trainer Gordon Elliott
has been delighted with his two Cross Country finishes at Cheltenham this
year. If you root around you might be lucky enough to back him at 10-1,
but no bigger.
AINT THAT A SHAME - Rachael
Blackmore had plenty of options, but the fact she has gone for this
consistent chaser tells you everything, plus she has recent experience of
riding a Grand National winner. Trainer Henry De Bromhead saddled first
and second in 2021. Available at 14-1 with a number of firms.
LIFETIME AMBITION - His former
jockey Robbie Power often said Lifetime Ambition is a Grand National horse
in the making. Trainer Jessica Harrington has won almost everything,
except the National. Victory would be a great tonic, as she's currently
being treated for breast cancer. Available at 28-1 with Betfair Sportsbook
and Paddypower.
EVAS OSKAR - Admittedly needs a bit
of luck, but he's better than his price suggests. Distance shouldn't be an
issue - he carried top weight to fourth in the Eider Chase over four miles
at Newcastle last time out. Available at 50-1 with Bet365 and Skybet.
So that's my four. Whatever you decide to go for, I sincerely hope it
brings you luck and, more importantly, gets around Aintree safely.
Terence Westbrook -
14 April 2023