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THE GRAND NATIONAL 2023

HOW TO PICK THE WINNER
Picking the winner of the Grand National is often described as a lottery (partly because the first horse to win the National, back in 1839, was called Lottery), but there are a number of things that provide useful pointers…

AGE - 8 AND 9 YEAR-OLDS?
Young and old horses tend to struggle in the National, yet it takes experience to win. A 13-year-old has not won the race since 1923, a 12-year-old not since 2004, an 11-year-old not since 2014 and a 10-year-old not since 2011. As for 7-year-old winners, there has only been one since the Second World War - last year's victor Noble Yeats! The 8 to 11 year-old range has proved the most successful in recent memory. But over the last 7 runnings, 8-year-olds have won 4 times and 9-year-olds two of the other three. The lack of a 10-year-old Grand National winner since 2011 really is hard to fathom. The 10-year-olds that stand out this time are The Big Dog and Delta Work.

WEIGHT - IDEALLY, NO MORE THAN 11 STONE?
The National is a handicap, which means all of the horses are allocated different weights in February based on an expert's take on their form - the idea being that each horse should end up having an equal chance. However, the result is another matter entirely. Under the handicap, horses are allocated a weight between 9 stone (for the worst horses) and a shade under 12 stone (for the proven acts). But, come race day, no horse carries less than 10 stones. The Grand National is a long, arduous race and coping with a big weight usually proves too much, even when the conditions are ideal; which was what made the performance of Many Clouds in 2015 all the more remarkable. Just 8 out of the last 37 winners have carried 11st or more; and 25 (68%) were carrying between 10st 5lb and 11st. So that would appear to narrow things down to the likes of Ain't That A Shame, Corach Rambler, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Le Milos, Longhouse Poet and Mr Incredible.

BETTING - 25-1 OR UNDER?
For what is considered a game of chance, is the Grand National getting easier to predict? A little easier. In recent memory, just one horse quoted bigger than 40-1 with a few days to go has triumphed - Mon Mome, in 2009, who won at 100-1. But, of course, seven years ago, Rule The World was 40-1 at this stage as was Red Marauder in 2001 (before eventually going off at 33s). Should you need any more evidence that the market is a good pointer, Papillon, in 2000, was 33-1 on the Friday and 10-1 when the tape went up. At this point, however, all one can do is second-guess how the market will develop.

WHAT’S IN A LETTER? AFTER ALL, THE RACE IS A LOTTERY!
The last Grand National winner with a "Z" in its name was Zoedone way back in, wait for it, 1883. Z isn't represented this year, but the letter "K" hasn't been attached to a National winner since Mr Frisk came home in front in 1990. Those with names containing a K include Back On The Lash, The Big Breakaway, Coko Beach, Delta Work and Evas Oskar.

WHO’S ON BOARD?
Some jockeys have fond memories of the Grand National (those in bold are still active, those greyed out have since retired):

  Winner 2nd 3rd 4th
2022 Sam Waley-Cohen Mark Walsh Jack Kennedy Nick Scholfield
2021 Rachael Blackmore Aidan Coleman Mark Walsh Patrick Mullins
2019 Davy Russell Paddy Kennedy Ruby Walsh James Best
2018 Davy Russell Barry Geraghty David Bass Keith Donoghue
2017 Derek Fox Jamie Codd Davy Russell Noel Fehily
2016 David Mullins David Bass Robert Dunne Robbie Power
2015 Leighton Aspell Paddy Brennan Liam Treadwell Paul Moloney
2014 Leighton Aspell Richard Johnson AP McCoy Paul Moloney
2013 Ryan Mania Paul Moloney Nick Scholfield Sam Waley-Cohen
2012 Daryl Jacob Richie McLernon Katie Walsh Paul Moloney
2011 Jason Maguire Sam Waley-Cohen AP McCoy Paul Moloney
2010 AP McCoy Denis O'Regan Paul Moloney Barry Geraghty
2009 Liam Treadwell Timmy Murphy Ruby Walsh Paul Moloney
2008 Timmy Murphy Paul Carberry David Casey Barry Geraghty
2007 Robbie Power Tom O'Brien Barry Geraghty Daryl Jacob

...and here's who they will be riding:

David Bass unassigned
James Best unassigned
Rachael Blackmore Ain't That A Shame
Paddy Brennan unassigned
Jamie Codd unassigned
Aidan Coleman The Big Dog
Keith Donoghue Delta Work
Robert Dunne unassigned
Derek Fox Corach Rambler
Daryl Jacob unassigned
Patrick Mullins unassigned
Denis O'Regan unassigned
Davy Russell Galvin
Nick Scholfield unassigned
Mark Walsh Any Second Now

TO CUT A LONG STORY SHORT!

 

Betting

Age

Weight

Corach Rambler

7

9

10-5

Delta Work

8

10

11-4

Noble Yeats

8.5

8

11-11

Gaillard Du Mesnil

12

7

11-0

Mr Incredible

12

7

10-4

Aint That A Shame

14

9

10-5

Le Milos

14

8

10-11

Longhouse Poet

14

9

11-0

Any Second Now

16

11

11-12

Capodanno

16

7

11-5

The Big Dog

16

10

11-5

Vanillier

18

8

10-6

Galvin

20

9

11-11

Our Power

20

8

10-2

Lifetime Ambition

25

8

11-3

Back On The Lash

28

9

10-2

Coko Beach

28

8

11-0

Roi Mage

28

11

10-8

The Big Breakaway

33

8

10-10

Velvet Elvis

33

7

10-6

Carefully Selected

40

11

11-1

Evas Oskar

40

9

10-2

Gabbys Cross

40

8

10-2

Minella Trump

40

9

10-6

As usual, I will be backing three to win plus a fourth (at a big price) each-way. Having picked out the first two in 2016, the winner in 2017 and the first two last year (2021) by implementing that plan, the law of averages suggests you can instantly strike a line through the four I am about to list. But here they are anyway...

DELTA WORK - Third in last year's National (albeit by 20 lengths), but carrying 5lbs less on this occasion, and has beaten stable-mate Tiger Roll in his time. Trainer Gordon Elliott has been delighted with his two Cross Country finishes at Cheltenham this year. If you root around you might be lucky enough to back him at 10-1, but no bigger.

AINT THAT A SHAME - Rachael Blackmore had plenty of options, but the fact she has gone for this consistent chaser tells you everything, plus she has recent experience of riding a Grand National winner. Trainer Henry De Bromhead saddled first and second in 2021. Available at 14-1 with a number of firms.

LIFETIME AMBITION - His former jockey Robbie Power often said Lifetime Ambition is a Grand National horse in the making. Trainer Jessica Harrington has won almost everything, except the National. Victory would be a great tonic, as she's currently being treated for breast cancer. Available at 28-1 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddypower.

EVAS OSKAR - Admittedly needs a bit of luck, but he's better than his price suggests. Distance shouldn't be an issue - he carried top weight to fourth in the Eider Chase over four miles at Newcastle last time out. Available at 50-1 with Bet365 and Skybet.

So that's my four. Whatever you decide to go for, I sincerely hope it brings you luck and, more importantly, gets around Aintree safely.

Terence Westbrook - 14 April 2023